Cheeky Betting Tips



Advice & Guidance




INTRODUCTION
The lack of honesty, integrity and even morality in several Twitter tipsters has resulted in many negative connotations being associated with the term ‘tipster’ – so much so that many now refuse to accept that they are, in fact, tipsters. The derogatory associations are perhaps deserved in many cases – far too many tipsters have only their own self-interests at heart. Our long-term followers know that is not the case at cheekybettingtips.co.uk.

TIPSTERS
It may assist some to first define the meaning of a tipster. Quite simply, a tipster is someone who gives tips. So what is a tip?

Is it a guaranteed winner? No.
Will it have more chance of success than an everyday punter’s bet? Not necessarily.
A tip is simply a helpful hint, warning, or other piece of information.
It may be in the form of a suggested bet.
It may be a statistic designed to assist with a decision.
It may just be a piece of information drawing attention to a particularly good offer.

If anyone expects any tipster to win every bet, they don’t know enough about gambling to be taking part. Having said that, it is not unreasonable to question the motives of a tipster that loses far more than he or she wins.

TWITTER
There is a growing number of tipsters on Twitter.

Some charge. Some are free.
Some are good. Others are not.
Some have a huge follower base. Others don’t.

The last two of those points do not necessarily go hand-in-hand! A huge Twitter following does not denote success. Those with thousands and thousands of followers will make considerable profits from bookmaker affiliate schemes and will become a more attractive affiliate to each bookmaker with whom they are affiliated. That will enable them to offer free bets, cash prizes and exclusive enhancements which, in turn, will lead to an even greater increase in followers.

There are many ways for a Tipster to increase their following. They can beg for a shout-out or ask for a retweet at every given opportunity. Some even lie about their success in order to attract a few more punters that don’t know any better. That is something we have never done and it is also something that we will never do.

PAYING FOR TIPS
Is it worth paying for tips? It might be, but how would you know without actually subscribing? Tipsters that charge can boast all day long about their winning tips but you can't see their losses until you've paid up, by which time they've already got what they wanted and probably don't really care what you think of them after that.

The question is; will the tipster that charges not only make as much profit as the free tipster (or yourself for that matter) but will they also make enough additional profit to cover your subscription fees? The answer cannot be known for sure without making the payment but, unlike horse racing, there is no real 'inside knowledge' with football and therefore our advice would be to hang fire unless you have reliable information to suggest that the investment would be worthwhile.

OUR TEAM AT CHEEKY BETTING
We’ve been gambling collectively for over 50 years and we know that we won’t win every bet. Our tips stay online and remain open to scrutiny at any time. When we win, we've done our job. When we lose, we accept it and move on - there’s no need to make excuses or cover things up.

There are three tipsters on our team and our studious approach has generated inventive ways of yielding profits. All three are employed in full-time jobs. None of us has any expectation, any inclination or even any desire to retire early and make a career out of being a tipster. Our jobs enable us to live perfectly comfortable lives and we only use disposable income for gambling. We enjoy the research, the anticipation, the victory and the rewards.

It is hoped that the vast majority of other tipsters will apply the same commitment and dedication to their research as we do. Unfortunately, there is much doubt about that and, although we can never guarantee profits, we are confident that our long-term followers will benefit from our advice, guidance and insight.

Our primary purpose is not to simply promote bookmakers' offers in order to attract commission. We have compiled and published useful advice and guidance in order to enhance your understanding of the different markets, techniques and systems that can be utilised to beat the bookies.

COMMISSION
Among the many general accusations against Twitter tipsters of late, the commission payments appear to be a source of considerable aggravation. When a punter opens up an account with a bookmaker via an affiliate’s link, the affiliate (the tipster) may receive some commission for introducing a customer to their service in the same way that some businesses (such as Sky) will give vouchers to any customers that refer a friend to their service. These commission payments, however, will only be given to a tipster if there is an aggregate loss of at least £200 at the end of each month among all punters that signed up via the affiliate’s link. In these cases, the tipster is liable to receive between 20% and 30% of the bookmaker’s profits.

The truth is - it may be open to abuse. How can a tipster be on the side of the punter if they only make money from the bookies’ profits? Well, a tipster’s intention should always be to win every bet. It wouldn't be much of a sustainable business plan to deliberately tip losers. Besides, no tipster can be sure that their referrals are still using their tips. Naturally, no tipster will win every bet and there will be losses along the way.

There appears to have been a disproportionate reaction by those that have recently become aware of these commission payments being made. It seems foolish to think that any punter would prefer their entire losing stake to go to the bookmaker. If they have opened a betting account using a tipster’s affiliate link, it is reasonable to assume that they have obtained some benefit from using the tipster’s service. If their bets lose, the punter gets nothing. Why would the punter care if their losses are paid entirely to the bookmaker or in part to the tipster? Presumably most people would prefer the latter in any case - particularly if they have received the tips for free.

We don’t need additional income from affiliate schemes and we’ll be maintaining this website irrespective of any earnings in this regard. However, any payments received enable us to develop the website and to offer cash prizes to our followers throughout the year. The website has had two major upgrades recently and we have given away in excess of £1,000 to our followers. Any money left over (and, rest assured, it's not a lot), keeps our wives sweet when we opt to write previews and articles over a shopping trip on a Saturday afternoon.

Our website was developed to bring you a source of advice, guidance and tips – that’s why you won’t see us flooding your Twitter timelines with links to bookmakers, their special offers and their sign-up bonuses. Use our links if you want to. Ignore them if you don’t.

OUR PROMISE
We won’t be charging a monthly fee. Ever.
At cheekybettingtips.co.uk, we want your betting experience to be both enjoyable and profitable.

Betting should be fun but losing money that you can’t afford to lose is not much fun at all. Here at cheekybettingtips.co.uk, we never bet more than we can afford to lose. In other words, we will only gamble with money that is left over after the essentials have been paid for.

There may be as many as 250,000 problem gamblers in the UK. The anticipation and thrill of gambling creates a natural high that can become addictive.

Signs of gambling addiction appear when gambling begins to interfere with someone’s day-to-day life. Gambling addiction can be difficult to detect but may lead to overdue bills, stealing, borrowing or selling things for extra dispensable cash.

A gambling addict may become secretive over their finances and their time spent gambling. Symptoms may also include neglecting family and personal obligations. At times, their neglect of reality can cause job loss, ruined relationships and financial or even criminal troubles.

Most bookmakers offer a Deposit Limit facility to enable you to limit the amount of money that you are able to deposit online into your account on either a daily or a weekly basis. They will also offer a self-exclusion facility to help customers that feel their gambling is out of control and want assistance to help them stop. By entering into a self-exclusion agreement, you will be prevented from using your account for a specified period.

If you are concerned about your gambling habits, please answer the following questions. The more you answer 'yes' to these questions, the more likely you are to have a serious gambling problem.

- Do you stay away from work, college or school to gamble?

- Do you gamble to escape from a boring or unhappy life?

- When gambling and you run out of money, do you need to gamble again ASAP?

- Do you gamble until your last penny is gone?

- Have you ever lied to cover up the amount of money or time you spend gambling?

- Have others ever criticised your gambling?

- Have you lost interest in your family, friends or hobbies?

- After losing, do you feel you must win back your losses as soon as possible?

- Do arguments, frustrations or disappointments make you want to gamble?

- Do you feel depressed or even suicidal because of your gambling?

If you believe you, or someone you know, may have a gambling problem you are strongly advised to contact GAMCARE
DOES SIZE MATTER?
There is a growing number of tipsters on Twitter.

Some charge. Some are free. Some are good. Others are not. Some have a huge follower base. Others don’t. However, a huge Twitter following does not denote success.

Those with thousands and thousands of followers will make considerable profits from membership fees and bookmaker affiliate schemes. That will enable them to offer free bets, cash prizes and exclusive enhancements which, in turn, will lead to an even greater increase in followers.

You will often see some of the larger accounts trading “shout-outs”. The process usually begins with the tipster making a request to one of the football funny accounts (the term ‘funny’ is used in the loosest of senses here but they have built a sizeable following nonetheless). “Follow so we can DM”, the tipster says in an unashamedly transparent plea to commence a business exchange free from the view of their followers.

A tweet is soon sent by the larger account to invite their huge follower base to follow “one of the best tipsters on Twitter” – one that you would be “mad not to follow”. The tweet should come with a warning! Although it appears to the Twittersphere to be a genuine endorsement, it is almost always in the wording chosen by the tipster themselves and it is often tweeted by an account that has had little or no prior acquaintance with the tipster.

They don’t say these kind words because they have been impressed by the tipster’s form – they say it because they have been paid – often up to £50 per tweet (and up to £20 just for a retweet). The tipsters hope that the investment will lead to a significant growth in their own follower base. The more followers they have, the more popular and successful they appear to be. Followers generate income and followers breed more followers.

We are often told that we should have more followers. We are naturally evaluated against some of the larger tipster accounts on Twitter and our followers are baffled about our comparative follower base. Why do we have fewer than 10,000 followers when other accounts with far inferior success rates have five (or even 20) times as many?

In short, it’s not what we want. We don’t ask for retweets, we don’t beg for followers and we certainly don’t pay for shout-outs!

A large following is often contrived. People have a tendency to ‘follow the crowd’ – some followers of the large accounts probably don’t even gamble and others will have unrealistic expectations. Either way, it will ultimately lead to disappointment. They were promised “one of the best tipsters on Twitter” and they expected huge profits from day one. Sadly, the tweet that led them to this mastermind tipster was entirely disingenuous and self-serving.

A natural growth resulting from genuine word-of-mouth endorsement ensures that our followers are all given a true indication of our successes (and failures). They have a genuine interest in football and betting, they know what the account is about and they don’t have unrealistic expectations. The perfect tipster does not exist. Our 32% return on investment far exceeds the return on any bank or building society and we have a lot of fun along the way. We don’t claim to win every bet and we don’t make promises that can’t be kept. In turn, our followers appreciate the successes and accept the inevitable losses in the process.

The same cannot be said of the larger accounts. Endless complaints and expressions of dissatisfaction are a by-product of their greed and we’ll take 9,000 happy followers over an angry mob of 30,000–120,000 every day of the week!
INTRODUCTION

An article appearing on the BBC’s website relating to social media tipsters has recently been brought to our attention and it makes for some very interesting reading. A more in-depth radio programme has also been recorded and that too is well worth hearing.

The article focuses on the somewhat controversial concept of bookmaker affiliation and, unsurprisingly, it centres on the potential exploitative nature of the schemes. Long-term followers of @cheekybetting will be familiar with bookmaker affiliate schemes because articles have been posted previously to draw our followers’ attention both to the arrangement itself and to the potential for it to be abused.


AFFILIATE SCHEMES

For those unaware, the affiliate scheme operates as follows:

When a punter opens up an account with a bookmaker via an affiliate’s link, the affiliate (the tipster) may receive some commission for introducing a customer to their service in the same way that some businesses (such as Sky TV) will give monetary vouchers to any customers that refer a friend to their services. These commission payments, however, will only be given to a tipster if there is an aggregate loss of at least £200 at the end of each month among all punters that signed up via the affiliate’s link. In these cases, the tipster is liable to receive between 20% and 30% of the bookmaker’s profits.

The truth is; it may be open to abuse. How can a tipster be on the side of the punter if they only make money from the bookmakers' profits? Well, it wouldn't be much of a sustainable business plan to deliberately tip losers. Besides, no tipster can be sure that their referrals are still using their tips and therefore the notion is somewhat short-sighted.

To apply some context, Betfred, Bet Victor and bet365 are the three bookmakers that feature most often on our website (Betfred because of their fixed-odds coupons and the other two because of their tendency to offer the best prices on our other bets). Referral figures confirm that, since October 2012, just under 200 accounts have been opened through Betfred, Bet Victor and bet365 via our links. Assuming half of those accounts are either no longer being used or are held by individuals who no longer follow our tips, the actual number of live referrals equates to less than 1% of our follower base. Admittedly, our referral figures are comparatively low because we don’t relentlessly post affiliate links all over Twitter as is the case with many others but the same logic applies to them. The radio programme 'Tipsters on Trial' indicated that some tipsters may even deliberately tip losers in order to secure profits through the affiliate schemes. However, it would make very little sense to employ these tactics at the risk of alienating 99% of the follower base. Eventually, the numbers would drop significantly and this would have a far greater adverse effect on the affiliate's long-term revenue. Naturally, no tipster will win every bet and there will be losses along the way but the belief that even the most dishonest tipsters on social media would deliberately tip losers is, quite frankly, ludicrous.


PROFIT/LOSS

We produce detailed profit/loss records that are open to scrutiny at any time by any visitors to our site. The records can be cross referenced with the previews and tips, all of which remain on the website and on Twitter for this purpose. It would be very easy to delete old tips (particularly the losing ones) and therefore ours are displayed sequentially from cheekybettingtips.co.uk/previews/id/1 (October 2012) to cheekybettingtips.co.uk/previews/id/1837 (June 2016). The profit/loss record demonstrates a 32% return on investment since October 2012 and, whilst our long-term followers will remember several bad runs during that time, they will also acknowledge that they have made a steady profit from our tips in spite of this.


COMMISSION

On the basis of our profit/loss records, the bookmakers have theoretically made an aggregate loss from the individuals that have opened accounts through our links and followed all of our tips. Does this mean that we’ve never made a penny from the scheme? No, of course not. Punters will rarely follow every tip and, those that do, will no doubt still have bets of their own (with or without the aid of another tipster). Others have opened accounts through our links and moved on to do their own thing shortly afterwards. Add that to the month-to-month fluctuations between profit and loss and, over a period of time, the end result is likely to be a profit for both the bookmaker and its affiliate. Is this corrupt or immoral in some way? No, not if it’s done in the right way. Gambling is, for most people, a form of entertainment. Entertainment costs money and bookmakers make money by providing that entertainment. When a punter places £10 a week on a 9-fold accumulator, he or she probably won’t expect to land the £2k potential return but the prospect alone is enough to provide the excitement he or she seeks. For the price of a cinema ticket, the punter may well feel that they’ve had value for money even if they lose.

There appears to have been a disproportionate reaction by those who have recently become aware of affiliate commission payments but it seems foolish to think that any punter would prefer their entire losing stake to go to the bookmaker. If they have opened a betting account using a tipster’s affiliate link, it is reasonable to assume that they have obtained some benefit from using the tipster’s service. If their bets lose, the punter gets nothing. Why would the punter care if their losses are paid entirely to the bookmaker or in part to the tipster? Presumably most people would prefer the latter in any case - particularly if they have received the tips for free.

There are three members of our team (including one web expert) and we are all employed in full-time jobs. None of us has any expectation, any inclination or even any desire to make a career out of being a tipster. Our jobs enable us to live perfectly comfortable lives and we only use disposable income for gambling. We enjoy the research, the anticipation, the victory and the rewards.

We don’t need additional income from affiliate schemes and we’ll be maintaining this website irrespective of any earnings in this regard. However, any payments received enable us to develop the website and to offer cash prizes to our followers throughout the year. The website has had two major upgrades recently and we have given away in excess of £1,000 to our followers. Any money left over (and, rest assured, it's not a lot), keeps our wives sweet when we opt to write previews and articles over a shopping trip on a Saturday afternoon.


BBC ARTICLE

The BBC obtained some valuable contributions from @CasualGamblerEV (among others) and the guys behind casualgambler.net should be applauded for their work. Not only does their website provide some useful insight that will rarely be volunteered by tipsters themselves but it also seems to be operating without any apparent pecuniary reward.

It’s refreshing to hear a radio programme that draws attention to the potential pitfalls associated with bookmaker affiliation. However, it perhaps lacks objectivity and one example of this is in the discussions about the rolling accumulator (or the ‘£25 to £1,000 challenge’ as it’s referred to). It suggests that “tipsters sometimes encourage punters to reinvest higher and higher stakes so they can take a cut of bigger losses along the way”. The misconception that a tipster would reap greater rewards under these circumstances is flawed because each punter’s overall loss would be the starting stake (£25 in this case) irrespective of the point at which the challenge fails. Rolling accumulators often encourage irresponsible gambling (particularly when the stakes reach high levels) and this is of some concern but the BBC programme (and, more accurately, Charlie – a social media tipster who has no affiliation with @CasualGamblerEV) appears to have missed the point in this instance. In our view, rolling accumulators are open to greater criticism in other ways and it is for this reason that we have very different tactics whereby profits are banked along the way in order to avoid losing the entire stake – see more on rolling accumulators here.

In fairness to the BBC, it’s hardly surprising that the programme portrays a subjective and generalised view because experience tells us that the honest and trustworthy tipsters are very much in the minority on social media. However, some of the accusatory language serves only to absolve punters of any blame when they lose money following a tipster on Twitter or Facebook. The broadcast warns the listeners that the tipster makes a profit “even if it was their bad advice that lost you the money”. Firstly, even if a bet loses, it does not necessarily mean that it was down to a piece of “bad advice” - not every losing bet is a bad bet. If, for example, you are offered odds of 2/1 on tails in a coin-toss, you’ve found a good bet, even if it loses. The same can be said for backing a football team in great form that happens to get a man sent off in the first half. Sh*t happens. Secondly, and this point is crucial, a tipster’s “bad advice” cannot make a punter lose his or her money. Only the punter can lose his or her money by electing to follow that advice. The punter makes a conscious decision to back it based on their own knowledge of the selection or their own faith in the tipster’s research or reputation. Any punter blindly following a tipster’s every bet will, at some point, need to take responsibility for any losses incurred. Even the best gamblers will have a bad run on occasions and punters should be prepared to take the rough with the smooth. If anyone could guarantee a profit, it would be inaccurate to call it gambling.

In any case, the suggestion that a tipster can lose money on behalf of a punter is a damning reflection of our society as a whole. When people get fat, we blame consumer advertising; when people get too drunk, we blame irresponsible landlords; when an apple pie is too hot, we sue McDonald’s for damages. Here’s an idea – eat less, drink in moderation and blow your f*cking food before swallowing it! On the same basis, if you don’t know much about the Iranian Women’s Third Division, feel free to ignore the tipster claiming a home win at odds of 2/9 is a “banker”. Punters should use tipsters for corroboration – not direction. The tips on this website are offered to you as a guide and you should decide for yourselves whether or not you agree. If you don’t agree, for the love of God, don’t back it and then blame us if it loses!

We are lucky at @cheekybetting because our followers very rarely criticise when things go wrong (and, yes, it’s inevitable that things will go wrong on occasions). The reason we’re not criticised is not simply thanks to a 32% return on investment; it’s also because of the natural growth of our follower base resulting from genuine word-of-mouth endorsements rather than a contrived influx triggered by relentless requests for retweets and shout-outs. Accordingly, our followers are all given a true indication of our successes and failures, thereby ensuring that they don’t have unrealistic expectations. We don’t claim to win every bet and we don’t make promises that can’t be kept. In turn, our followers appreciate the successes and accept the inevitable losses in the process. We’re football tipsters – not financial advisers.


RESPONSIBLE GAMBLING

One crucial point that the BBC programme touches on is irresponsible gamblers and this is a subject that has been a priority since our website was created (read more here). The programme suggests that, by following a high number of tipsters on social media, punters can often be encouraged to bet more than they can afford to lose. Our advice would be to either split your desired stake accordingly or to simply unfollow the poor performers to remove the temptation (if that includes @cheekybetting, so be it – we won’t take it personally).


CONCLUSION

Some of the views above may seem rather defensive of tipsters as a group and that is not the intention. The lack of honesty, integrity and even morality in a number of social media tipsters has resulted in many negative connotations being associated with the term ‘tipster’. The derogatory associations are perhaps deserved in many cases because far too many tipsters have only their own interests at heart.

The only criticism of the ‘Tipsters on Trial’ piece is that it conveys a one-sided version of the truth (albeit, in the most part, quite accurately). Aside from that, both the article and the radio programme should be regarded as a positive step towards raising awareness and promoting responsible advertising of gambling products.

We would welcome greater regulation of tipsters with open arms but this seems to be a very distant reality. Advertising standards are designed to protect consumers and, in the case of gambling, the bookmakers are responsible for ensuring compliance in this regard (whether they promote their products directly or via an affiliate). It seems clear that effective enforcement of the existing regulatory provisions would be more viable than legislative change.

In any case, the debate is open and that can only be a good thing. Our website was developed to bring you a source of advice, guidance and tips – not to milk the punters until they moo. That’s why you won’t see us flooding your Twitter timelines every hour with links to bookmakers, their special offers and their sign-up bonuses. Use the links on our website if you want to. Ignore them if you don’t. That’s your call.
What is a Rolling Accumulator?

An accumulator is defined as "a collective bet in which the stake and winnings on each successive event are carried forward to become the stake on the next, so that both stakes and winnings accumulate progressively so long as the bet continues to be a winning one".

A "Rolling Accumulator" is largely the same but instead of picking all selections up front, all bets will be manually placed before each individual event.


How do tipsters use Rolling Accumulators?

Many tipsters, particularly on Twitter, appear to have misunderstood the purpose of a Rolling Accumulator. It is often treated as an orthodox accumulator for events taking place over just a day or two. If the information and the prices for all selections are available at the beginning of the bet, why not just make your selections and place a normal accumulator bet (thereby allowing the bookies to do the work, rather than placing every bet manually)? Some Twitter tipsters have missed the point entirely and their bets are no different to a manually-placed orthodox accumulator. The novelty is perhaps in placing each bet in stages but, in practice, it actually complicates things and creates additional work for the punter!


What are the advantages of using a Rolling Accumulator?

A genuine Rolling Accumulator allows punters to pick the best bets over an undefined period of time - not restricted to events for which prices already exist at the beginning of the bet. It also enables punters to withdraw some winnings midway through the accumulator before proceeding to the next selection.


What type of bets would you use it for?

It can be for any type of bet but, generally, it would be used because not all of the prices (or the necessary team news etc) is available at the time the bet begins. One might, for instance, wish to bet on Barcelona winning eight consecutive games. The punter would not be able to obtain prices for games that take place several days or weeks into the future and therefore a Rolling Accumulator would be the way to do it.


How will Cheeky Betting Tips use the Rolling Accumulator?

We will begin with reasonably low stakes (£10) but punters can decide for themselves how much they wish to stake. We will pick our best bet and, depending on the value available, we may need to wait for a day (or several days) before finding the next one. If you intend to follow, please be patient. We won't be parting with our money until a solid-looking bet is available.


How do we win?

If, and when, the returns get to £50, we will bank our initial stake of £10 and continue playing with the rest until we get to £100, at which point, we will bank a further £50 of the winnings and continue playing with the rest. We will then continue banking £50 every time the balance gets to £100 until it loses. Why? Because one of the main problems with Rolling Accumulators on Twitter is the target (£10 to £1k etc). Invariably, it will lose before reaching the target but significant profit may have been made before the eventual loss and it is irresponsible to let it all slip away.
It's a phrase often seen on Twitter - usually by the smug ones in the corner after seeing someone else lose a bet - "Never include the early kick-off in an acca".

Let's just think about that for a minute. Never bet on the early kick off. Why not?

Do the bookies win every bet they lay on an early kick-off? No.
Are the odds stacked in the bookies' favour? No more than usual!
Is there more chance of winning after 2pm? Please.

If a bet is going to lose, it doesn't matter if it loses at 2.30pm or 10pm - your bank balance will be the same. Those suggesting that the entire bet suddenly constitutes a "schoolboy error" (when it loses) should consider exactly why that is the case. If it had won, they'd be part of the way through their accumulator before the rest had even kicked off - it works both ways.

This new age 'golden rule of betting' came about because some amateur punters noticed that, by including an early kick-off in an accumulator, the bet may be settled as a loser before the majority of fixtures have even kicked off. They are, of course, right - but what's the problem? Where's the mischief? Would it have been better to lose at 5pm rather than 2.30pm? Of course not.

The truth is, it's merely a superstition and a way of ensuring that an accumulator is still active while the main action is taking place. Betting on the early kick-off won't actually reduce your chances of winning but it might reduce your enjoyment later in the day. On that basis, those looking for a bit of Saturday afternoon entertainment should probably restrict themselves to the 3pm fixtures but, in terms of making a profit, there is no logic to back that up.

It is perfectly understandable for those placing one accumulator on a Saturday to derive as much enjoyment as possible - that is essentially what gambling is to most of us - a form of entertainment (for which we pay).

However, it is wrong to suggest that betting on an early kick-off somehow breaches this "golden rule". The rule does not exist - it is applied only by amateurs and, for the reasons given, it is perfectly understandable under certain circumstances. However, those criticising the inclusion of an early kick-off in an accumulator are, somewhat ironically, demonstrating their own lack of knowledge. It is not a schoolboy error - it is a gamble and, like any gamble, it has a chance of losing. The time that the loss is confirmed is, to serious punters, entirely irrelevant.

There is one golden rule of betting: Never stake more than you can afford to lose. Anything after that is simply down to personal preference.
Any given event has a chance of occurring and bookmakers offer odds determined by the probability of any such event. Be aware that the odds offered will not always be a true reflection of the actual probability. In order for their businesses to succeed, bookmakers will take into account their own profit margins and their potential liability on any given event.

Example

If a bookmaker regards Manchester City as the favourites to win the Premier League, they may conclude that City have a one-in-two chance of winning the title. By rights, the bookmakers should offer punters a £20 profit on every £10 staked (usually displayed as odds of 2/1). However, they may decide to only offer punters a £15 profit (by quoting odds of 6/4) in order to account for their own profit margins.

If huge sums of money are then staked on City to win the league, the bookmaker will probably reduce the odds further in order to protect the business against substantial losses. In this case, the probability of City winning the league has not changed – they still have a one-in-two chance of doing so - but the value of taking such a bet will shrink along with the odds. Our experts will not recommend any bets on this site unless the selection has value.

Punters should be aware of the different types of odds offered by bookmakers, the most common of which are explained below.

FRACTIONAL ODDS (commonly used throughout the UK) are displayed as fractions. For instance, odds of 3/1 (sometimes referred to as 3 to 1 against) mean that, according to the bookmaker, the chances of failure are three times more likely than the chances of success. A winning £10 bet at 3/1 would pay out £30 plus the initial £10 stake making a £40 return in total (£30 of which is profit).

DECIMAL ODDS (commonly used in America and on betting exchange sites such as Betfair) are displayed as whole numbers or parts of whole numbers in decimal form. A winning £10 bet at 4.0 would pay out £40, calculated by multiplying the stake with the odds (10 x 4). The stake is already included in the winnings and therefore, like the example given under the "fractional odds" heading, the total return would be £40 (£30 of which is profit). Effectively, decimal odds are equivalent to the decimal value of the fractional odds plus one. 3/1 is therefore the same as 4.0. Similarly, 5/2 is the same as 3.5.

TAKE ADVANTAGE of the offers made available by bookmakers in their attempts to encourage new players. The offers usually involve free bets and this site provides links to some fantastic offers whereby punters can qualify for a wide range of introductory offers. It only takes a couple of minutes to register a new account so why place a bet using your existing accounts when a risk-free equivalent can be staked elsewhere?

ALWAYS look for the value. Hypothetically, if you were offered odds of 10/1 for a particular number to come out on a six-sided dice, you’d be a fool not to bet on it – there is a one-in-six chance of a win and the payout is favourably disproportionate to the probability of success. The same logic can be applied to football betting. When a bookmaker offers an enhanced price on any given occurrence, it is at least worthy of consideration and, depending on the value of the offer, can yield big profits.

NEVER bet more than you can afford to lose. In other words, only gamble with money that is left over after the essentials have been paid for. Betting should be fun and, done right, can be very profitable. Losing money that you can’t afford to lose is clearly neither fun nor profitable.
The following guidance will be helpful to anyone engaging in fixed-odds betting.

Fixed-odds are used by high-street bookmakers and are the most common form of odds available to punters.

Fixed-odds betting is based on a simple 'win or lose' scenario and therefore it is easy to calculate how much will be won in the event of success and how much will be lost in the event of failure.

There are several generic tips below that may assist punters to maximise their winnings on their fixed-odds football bets.

NEVER bet on 0-0 in the correct score markets. The odds quoted for '0-0' will almost always be identical to the odds offered on 'No Goalscorer' in the First Goalscorer markets. Backing 'No Goalscorer' ensures a full payout if the only goals scored are own goals. If, for example, Everton's Tim Howard scores an own goal in a 1-0 defeat to Liverpool, punters who backed 'No Goalscorer' will win whereas those who backed 0-0 will lose.

Note: The odds for 0-0 and the odds for 'No Goalscorer' will not necessarily be the same in Betting Exchange markets (for more information, see our 'Exchange Betting' post in the Advice & Guidance section). Our advice would always be to back 'No Goalscorer' ahead of '0-0' but only if the odds are equal to or greater than those quoted for 0-0.

LAST GOALSCORER

If, like many punters, you are betting 'just for fun', consider the Last Goalscorer markets ahead of the First Goalscorer markets. Far more money is staked on First Goalscorer betting but, when a goal is scored after 90 seconds, the excitement (or 'fun') is over. Last Goalscorer betting will maintain your interest until the game finishes or the chosen player's participation is over.

Note: When making your Last Goalscorer selection, consider the possibility of the player being substituted or sent off before the final whistle. The longer he stays on the pitch, the more chance he has of scoring the last goal in the game.

ACCUMULATORS

Many punters like to place accumulator bets on a full weekend of fixtures. In doing so, the temptation is there to select a vast number of 'home bankers'. The more selections you make, the more chance you have of one letting you down. Backing nine teams to win, each at odds of around 2/5, will generate odds of approximately 20/1. However, in a group of nine games, it is actually very common for one or two shocks to occur. Accumulator punters are therefore advised to concentrate on a smaller number of selections (perhaps between four and six) with one or two at odds around or above Evens. It won't make you rich but you'll almost certainly win more often whereas the former tactic is far more likely to disappoint you on a regular basis.

COMPARE ODDS

There are many websites available to compare bookmakers' odds in order to ensure that you are getting the best value possible. Be sure to utilise these sites before parting with your hard-earned cash. Any tips on this site will be quoted at the best price available at the time of publication but market trends can affect the odds and therefore a quick comparison may be worthwhile.

DON'T FOLLOW TRENDS

When the odds for a horse to win a particular race drop considerably before the start, it is often because many punters have placed large sums of money on that horse to win possibly because someone, somewhere has some positive information to suggest that the horse's chances of winning have increased. However, when the same thing happens in football, particularly some time after the starting line-ups have been named, there is no suggestion that a team is more likely to win or that a player is more likely to score. If the price drops, it is simply because big money has been staked on the outcome. Punters are advised against following such trends if the bet is based primarily on the notion that the outcome is fancied.

BE SELECTIVE

The tips on this site are offered to you as a guide and you should decide whether or not you agree. It may be prudent to avoid blindly following every bet because, naturally, not every bet will win. However, before any tip is made on this site, extensive research is carried out in relation to the form and statistics of the players and teams concerned. It is intended to make your life easier the more work we do, the less work you need to do.

To repeat the dice analogy from the General Tips section, you'd be a fool not to accept odds of 10/1 for a particular number to come out on a six-sided dice. Even if you were to lose the bet (and there is an 83% chance that you will), it is still a very good bet.

Our experts will ensure that the only tips published are, in their opinion, good value bets. If, in the opinion of the professionals, the chance of a winning outcome is significantly lower than the price suggests, that particular selection will not be included as a tip.
Exchange betting can be quite an intimidating subject for anyone new to the game. In reality, it is far less complicated than it first appears and can be a highly profitable betting technique.

Most exchanges (such as Betfair and Betdaq) make money from commission charges on winning bets. This means that punters will pay between 2% and 5% of their winnings to the exchange operator. If you are able to get the same (or better) odds on a particular event with another bookmaker, it would make more sense to bet against that particular bookmaker rather than the exchange because that way you won’t pay commission.

However, with exchange betting, anything you bet on will be a bet against another customer (as opposed to a bookmaker) and therefore you can generally expect to be offered higher odds. The difference between the odds available on a betting exchange will often be far more than a 5% increase on a high street bookmaker’s odds and therefore punters can reap the benefits even after paying a commission fee.

A betting exchange enables punters to "back" or "lay" certain outcomes on a wide range of betting markets.

BACKING any given outcome is the same as betting that the event WILL occur and is effectively no different to a normal bet in a high street betting shop.

LAYING any given outcome is the same as betting that the event WILL NOT occur.

For example, if I think that a Fulham v Everton match will be a tight game with very few goals, I may wish to bet £5 and BACK a 0-0 correct score at 9.0 (8/1). My balance (the money in my account) will be reduced by my liability on the bet in question, which, in this case, is my stake (£5). Once the bet is settled, my balance will either:

- not change (as my £5 stake has already been deducted), or

- increase by £43, which is broken down as follows:
+£40 winnings (£5 at 9.0 or 8/1 = £40)
-£2 commission (5% of profit)
+£5 initial liability

Alternatively, I may think that the same game will be a high scoring game and decide to LAY the 0-0 correct score at 9.0 (8/1). This effectively means that I am prepared to offer another punter odds of 8/1 that it won’t be 0-0 at the final whistle. Given that I am prepared to payout at eight times the value of my potential winnings, I will need a fair bit of money in my account to make the bet. If, for instance, I wish to win £5 by laying the bet, my balance would need to be greater than £40 to cover the liability of the bet. If I am right, and a goal is scored, the liability of £40 will be returned to my account along with a further £4.75 in winnings (£5 minus 5% of the profits). Although this may seem like a large sum of money to risk for a relatively small profit, it is far easier to predict that one particular outcome WILL NOT occur than it is to predict that an outcome WILL occur.

Effectively, by LAYING 0-0 in the correct score market, I am saying that the score will be:
1-0, 2-0,2-1, 3-0, 3-1, 3-2, 4-0, 4-1, 4-2, 4-3, 1-1, 2-2, 3-3, 0-1, 0-2, 1-2, 0-3, 1-3, 2-3, 0-4, 1-4, 2-4, or 3-4… etc.

There are several generic tips below that may assist punters to maximise their winnings on their exchange bets.

NO GOALS

With fixed-odds betting, we would always recommend that punters back 'No Goalscorer' in the First Goalscorer markets rather than 0-0 in the correct score markets. With fixed-odds betting, the odds for the two bets will almost always be identical but, by backing 'No Goalscorer', punters can ensure a full payout if the only goals scored are own goals. However, as the exchange betting markets will fluctuate depending on individuals (as opposed to bookmakers), the odds for 0-0 and the odds for 'No Goalscorer' will not necessarily be the same. The advice would always be to back 'No Goalscorer' ahead of '0-0' but only if the odds are equal to or greater than those quoted for 0-0.

It is worth looking at the other markets available before placing a bet on 0-0. With Betfair, for example, there are six different markets to bet on the game being goalless:

- Correct Score (0-0)
- First Goalscorer (No Goalscorer)
- First Goal Odds (No Goal)
- Next Goal (No Goal)
- Over/Under 0.5 Goals (Under 0.5 Goals)
- Winning Margin (No Goals)

If punters are inclined to bet on 0-0, they would be advised to check all of the above markets and take the highest odds available. On some occasions, it may be possible to lay the bet at lower odds on any of the other markets in order to guarantee a profit before a ball has even been kicked.

Note: For the reasons outlined above, you should never lay 'No Goalscorer' in the First Goalscorer markets if you have backed a goalless draw because, if the only goals scored are own goals, you would lose both bets.

CHECK EQUIVALENT MARKETS

Wherever possible, punters should check if there is an equivalent market on which to place your proposed bet. As shown above, there are several ways to effectively bet on a 0-0 correct score and there may be other ways to do the same with other bets – particularly in-play. If, for instance, Arsenal and Swansea are drawing 0-0 during the second half of their game, you may wish to bet on Arsenal to win the game. Don't just check the 'Match Odds' market. There may be better equivalent odds on Draw/Arsenal in the 'Half-time/Full-Time' market.

CHECK THE TEAM NEWS

It can often be beneficial to find out which players will be playing. Clearly, if a player is named in the starting line-up, he is more likely to score a goal. With fixed-odds betting, the 'To Score' market only applies to those players starting the match – anyone left out of the team is deemed a non-runner. The same rule does not apply to betting exchange markets and players will only be deemed non-runners if they play no part in the game whatsoever. A punter may, for example, back Wayne Rooney to score against Norwich City at odds of around 1.8 (4/5) but later find out that he is being replaced by Javier Hernandez and will start on the bench. If Rooney comes on with five minutes to go, it is far less likely that he will score and therefore there is very little value in the bet. Had the punter waited until the starting line-ups were confirmed, he/she may have decided against backing Rooney to score (or obtained far higher odds if they still wished to place the bet). The same applies to those wishing to bet against Rooney scoring. They could lay the bet at 1.8 and then find that the price rises to 4.8 when the teams are named. A quick calculation would enable the lucky punter to back the bet at a higher price and ensure a profit before a ball has been kicked (provided Rooney plays some part in the game). Others that have backed Hernandez to score at odds of around 4.8 may also have the option to lay the bet at much lower odds once the team news is in. Any punters able to keep ahead of the markets in terms of team news will have a huge advantage in this respect.

BE SELECTIVE

The tips on this site are offered to you as a guide and you should decide whether or not you agree. It may be prudent to avoid blindly following every bet because, naturally, not every bet will win. However, before any tip is made on this site, extensive research is carried out in relation to the form and statistics of the players, teams and referees concerned. It is intended to make your life easier – the more work we do, the less work you need to do.

PAY ATTENTION TO THE GAME

If you are able to watch the game live, be aware that prices will frequently fluctuate throughout. Sometimes it is better to lay a bet on an in-play market to guarantee a profit. Likewise, it may be prudent to consider cutting your losses when things are going badly before it gets any worse.

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SPREAD BETTING

Spread betting works in much the same way as fixed-odds betting but with different stakes and payouts. Both types of betting involve a bet on the outcome of an event and punters will either win or lose depending on whether or not their prediction is right.

However, rather than a straight "win or lose" scenario, payouts and losses from spread betting will be determined by the degree to which the bet was right or wrong. The more you are right, the more you win. Similarly, the more you are wrong, the more you lose.

Bookmakers offering spread bets will quote two prices on every single event on which they are accepting bets.

Example:

When Manchester United play Manchester City, the 'Total Goals' market may be quoted at 2.7 - 2.9. This allows punters to bet on the number of goals that will be scored during the game and they can choose to 'sell' at 2.7 goals or 'buy' at 2.9 goals. Selling at 2.7 goals means that the punter expects a low-scoring game (with fewer than 2.7 goals) whereas buying at 2.9 goals means that the punter expects more than 2.9 goals to be scored.

If, for example, the game finishes 3-3, the final mark-up is 6 and the winnings/losses will be calculated accordingly. Those that bought at 2.9 goals will win 3.1 times their stake (6 – 2.9) and those that sold at 2.7 goals will lose 3.3 times their stake (6 - 2.7).

The market shown in the above example is unlikely to result in wins or losses over four or five times your stake (because very, very few games have more than 8 goals and none have fewer than 0 goals). However, there are many other markets in which the result can create massive wins or losses. An 'Aggregate Goal Minutes' market, for instance, may attract a spread of 110-120 minutes. A punter may buy at 120 minutes in the hope that there will be plenty of goals - preferably late in the game. If 6 goals are scored and three are in the last 15 minutes, it is perfectly plausible for the final mark-up to be settled at around 400 minutes. The lucky punter would therefore win 280 times his/her stake! However, there may also be unhappy punters that expected a low final mark-up and, having sold at 110 minutes, they may find themselves out of pocket by 290 times their stake. It is for this reason that the tips below have been published in order to assist punters in avoiding large losses.

There are several generic tips below that may assist punters to maximise their winnings on their spread bets.

OPEN A DEMO ACCOUNT

If you are new to spread betting, it may be worth opening a demo-account in order to practice. It's far better to make mistakes with pretend money than your own and, when you're ready to upgrade, you'll have some experience to draw on from your demo days.

BE SELECTIVE

The tips on this site are offered to you as a guide and you should decide whether or not you agree. It may be prudent to avoid blindly following every bet because, naturally, not every bet will win. However, before any tip is made on this site, extensive research is carried out in relation to the form and statistics of the players, teams and referees concerned. It is intended to make your life easier – the more work we do, the less work you need to do.

PAY ATTENTION TO THE GAME

If you are able to watch the game live, be aware that prices will frequently fluctuate throughout. Sometimes it is better to close a bet on an in-play market to guarantee a profit. Likewise, it may be prudent to consider cutting your losses when things are going badly before it gets any worse. If, for instance you have bet on a high-scoring, entertaining game and Liverpool lead 4-0 with 25 minutes to go, you may believe that Liverpool will take their foot off the gas and settle for what they have – that would be the time to close the bet in order to make a greater profit than you would by seeing it out.

DON’T BE EMBARRASSED TO BET SMALL STAKES

The biggest differences between fixed-odds betting and spread betting concern the stakes and the payouts. When you bet 10p on a fixed-odds bet, you can only lose 10p but, when you bet 10p on a spread bet, you could in some cases lose in excess of £100. It may be embarrassing to ask a high-street bookmaker to take a 10p bet but no such emotion should be felt with a spread-bet. On some events (where a loss of 1500 times your stake is a genuine possibility), a stake between 1p and 5p may be more appropriate.

CALCULATE POTENTIAL LOSSES BASED ON A WORST CASE SCENARIO

If, for example, you are inclined to buy at 120 aggregate goal minutes (as in the earlier example), be aware that you may lose up to 120 times your stake in the event of a goalless draw. Before committing to a stake, calculate how much you can afford to lose. If you have £12 available for the bet, limit your stake to 10 pence. By calculating your maximum loss, you can ensure that you are not gambling beyond your means.

USE A STOP-LOSS ACCOUNT IF YOU ARE UNCERTAIN

A stop-loss account caps the maximum loss and maximum win on any given event. If, for instance, you are betting on the number of aggregate goal minutes and decide to sell at 110, you could potentially lose 500 times your stake. This is obviously unlikely but it could happen. A stop-loss account may cap the win/loss at 200 goal minutes, meaning that you cannot win or lose anything over 200 times your stake.